Saturday 3 April 2021

Bubble or a drop in the ocean? Putting Bitcoin’s $1 trillion milestone into perspective

On Feb. 19, Bitcoin’s (BTC) market capitalization surpassed $1 trillion for the first time. While this was an exciting moment for investors, it also concerned investors that the asset is in a bubble.

Although a handful of listed companies ever achieved this feat, unlike gold, silver, and Bitcoin, stocks potentially generate earnings, which in turn can be used for buybacks, dividends, or developing additional sources of revenue.

On the other hand, as Bitcoin adoption increases, those same companies will likely be forced to move some of their cash positions to non-inflatable assets, ensuring demand for gold, silver and Bitcoin.

In fact, data shows that diversification between Bitcoin and traditional assets provides better risk-adjusted performance for investors, which is getting increasingly difficult for companies to ignore.

Bitcoin continuing to push above the trillion-dollar mark is also easy to overlook until one compares it to the market cap of other significant global assets. To date, less than ten tradable assets have achieved this feat.

World’s 20 most profitable companies. Source: fortune.com

As depicted above, the world’s 44 most profitable companies combined generate more than $1 trillion in earnings per year. One must keep in mind that stockholders might as well reinvest their dividends into equities, but some of it might end up in Bitcoin.

$1 trillion is small compared to real estate markets

Corporate earnings are not the only flows that may trickle into scarce digital assets. Some analysts estimate that part of the real estate investment, especially those yielding less than inflation, will eventually migrate to riskier assets, including Bitcoin.

On the other hand, current holders of lucrative real estate assets might be willing to diversify. Considering the relatively scarce assets available, stocks, commodities, and Bitcoin are likely the beneficiaries of some of this inflow.

Global real estate markets. Source: visualcapitalist.com

According to the above chart, the global agricultural real estate is valued at $27 trillion. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates a return on farm equity at 4.2% for 2020. Albeit very raw data, considering there are multiple uses for agricultural real estate, it is quite feasible that the sector generates over $1 trillion per year.

As recently reported by Cointelegraph, there are 51.9 million individuals worldwide with $1 million or higher net worth, excluding debt. Despite representing only 1% of the adult population, they collectively hold $173.3 trillion. Even if those are unwilling to sell assets in exchange for BTC, an insignificant 0.6% annual return is enough to create $1 trillion.

If there’s a bubble, Bitcoin is not alone

These numbers confirm how a $1 trillion market capitalization for Bitcoin should not be immediately considered a bubble.

Maybe those Bitcoin maximalists are correct, and global assets are heavily inflated due to a lack of scarce and secure options to store wealth. In this case, which doesn’t seem obvious, a global-scale asset deflation would certainly limit BTC upside potential. Unless they somehow think a cryptocurrency can extrapolate global wealth, which seems odd.

Back to a more realistic worldview, the above comparison with equities, agricultural real estate, and global wealth also confirms how insignificant Ether’s (ETH) current $244 billion capitalization is, let alone the remaining $610 billion in altcoins.

Assuming none of the corporate profits or real estate yield will be allocated to cryptocurrencies seems unlikely. Meanwhile, a mere $100 billion annual inflow for Bitcoin is five times higher than the $20.3 billion newly-minted coins per year at the current $59,500 price.

For example, $100 billion flowing into Bitcoin would only be 5% of the $1 trillion yearly corporate dividends and 5% from global wealth or agricultural real estate returns. Even though the impact on gold’s $11 trillion market capitalization would be negligent, such allocations would certainly play a vital role in Bitcoin’s path to becoming a multi-trillion dollar asset.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.


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ETH smashes records, Bitcoin’s brilliant quarter, PayPal’s big move

Coming every Saturday, Hodler’s Digest will help you track every single important news story that happened this week. The best (and worst) quotes, adoption and regulation highlights, leading coins, predictions and much more — a week on Cointelegraph in one link.

Top Stories This Week

ETH breaks record all-time high amid fresh price surge

Ether? Record high! Binance Coin? Record high! Polkadot? Record high! Bitcoin? Flat as a pancake!

Altcoins have been in the driver’s seat this week, with Ether breaking $2,100 for the very first time — besting the ATH of $2,036 that was set on Feb. 20. Curiously, several coins belonging to so-called “Ethereum killer” blockchains have been thriving, too.

ETH’s price broke out against Bitcoin for the first time in 23 days on Thursday, not long after credit card giant Visa announced it was piloting a program that will allow its partners to use Ethereum’s blockchain to settle transactions made in fiat.

Traders have now become exceedingly bullish on Ether’s prospects and are expecting more upside in the short-term, with $2,500 now in play. In particular, there’s interest in the price activity we could expect in June and July when a major improvement proposal called EIP-1559 is set to overhaul Ethereum’s existing fee structure.

The celebratory atmosphere following ETH’s all-time highs was dampened as the gas fee crisis rumbles on. The cost of using this blockchain has surged 77% in recent days, taking the average fee to an eye-watering $22.97.

 

 

April Bulls Day? Bitcoin just closed its best March and Q1 in eight years

Bitcoin may be struggling to find its footing above $60,000 right now, but at least we can take succor in how well the cryptocurrency has performed so far this year.

Despite March being a historically dreary month — with losses in six of the past nine years — BTC delivered gains of 29.84% over this 31-day period. Better still, we’re now heading into April, where BTC has only suffered negative returns twice since 2013.

Across the first quarter of the year, covering January to March, Bitcoin also gained 103%, clocking up the best performance in eight years.

Traditionally, Q2 is the strongest time of the year for Bitcoin — with only two years seeing negative returns, both under 10%. Bulls will now have their sights set on surpassing the gains of 159% seen between April and June 2019.

In other upbeat developments, BTC has just closed six consecutive monthly green candles for the first time since April 2013, and should history repeat itself, we could see further parabolic gains this year.

 

PayPal to start letting U.S. customers pay in Bitcoin at global merchants

Bitcoin’s bounce back from $55,000 was likely fueled by PayPal’s announcement that crypto will now be accepted as a medium of exchange at millions of global merchants.

The new feature, Checkout with Crypto, means U.S. customers will be able to “seamlessly” use their digital assets to make purchases. PayPal also supports Ether, Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash.

Crypto will be converted into fiat as soon as the transaction takes place, and the payments giant says this will create “certainty of value and no additional transaction fees.”

PayPal CEO Dan Schulman said: “Enabling cryptocurrencies to make purchases at businesses around the world is the next chapter in driving the ubiquity and mass acceptance of digital currencies.”

One fly in the ointment here concerns how America’s taxman, the Internal Revenue Service, regards crypto as property rather than currency. This means that even spending Bitcoin that has risen in value could be regarded as a taxable event.

 

 

Coinbase expects direct listing on April 14

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has given its blessing for Coinbase to make its stock market debut, with the exchange confirming it will happen on April 14. It’ll feature on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker symbol COIN.

Coinbase had been expected to go public in March but reportedly delayed its plans after paying a $6.5-million fee as part of a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Crypto analyst Filbfilb says the direct listing could spark “increased volatility” for Bitcoin’s price, especially if Coinbase suffers immediate sell-offs like Deliveroo did during its ill-fated IPO in London.

In other developments, Messari has compiled a report concluding that the so-called “Coinbase effect” — a popular belief that new token listings on the exchange tend to outperform launches on other exchanges — is true.

 

Michael Jordan, Will Smith join $305-million funding round for NBA Top Shot maker Dapper Labs

Dapper Labs has raised $305 million in a star-studded funding round — meaning it now reportedly holds a valuation of $2.6 billion.

The company, which has brought CryptoKitties and NBA Top Shot to life, says it wants to go beyond American basketball and extend the “same magic” to other sports franchises.

In other news, intrepid Cardano developers have found a way to mint bootleg nonfungible tokens — despite the fact that the blockchain doesn’t support smart contracts yet. Meanwhile, The Weeknd announced he’s releasing his first NFT via Nifty Gateway, featuring “new music and limited edition art.”

Nifty Gateway has also announced that it is planning to become carbon-negative in the near future by calculating its emissions and purchasing twice as many carbon offsets each month.

The craze behind NFTs now appears to have reached peak parody, too, after NBC’s famed Saturday Night Live sketch show addressed nonfungible tokens in a skit featuring Kate McKinnon as U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

 

 

Announcement of the week

 

Markets Pro delivers up to 1,497% ROI as quant-style crypto analysis arrives for every investor

It’s now been a month since Cointelegraph Markets Pro launched — bringing professional crypto market intelligence to every investor.

New figures this week showed that 41 of the 42 trading strategies tested by Markets Pro are currently beating Bitcoin’s investment returns, and 36 of them are winning against an evenly weighted basket of the top 100 altcoins.

Two key features are offered to subscribers. The first is the VORTECS™ Score, which is derived from an algorithm that examines multiple different variables (including sentiment, tweet volume, price volatility and trading volume) and compares those with historically similar marketscapes. 

And the second is NewsQuakes™: alerts on events that have historically had a significant impact on an asset’s price over the following 24 hours. 

Cointelegraph Markets Pro is available exclusively to subscribers on a monthly basis at $99 per month, or annually with two free months included.

 

Winners and Losers

 

 

At the end of the week, Bitcoin is at $59,699.22, Ether at $2,111.64 and XRP at $0.63. The total market cap is at $1,965,398,828,338.

Among the biggest 100 cryptocurrencies, the top three altcoin gainers of the week are Holo, BitTorrent and Helium. The top three altcoin losers of the week are Voyager Token, SwissBorg and Pundi X.

For more info on crypto prices, make sure to read Cointelegraph’s market analysis

 

 

Most Memorable Quotations

 

“Expecting Ethereum to outperform Bitcoin for all of Q2.”

Rookie, crypto trader

 

“Is Theta actually worth all the hype? I am not sure because it’s too early to tell. I want to see how well their mainnet does.”

Marie Tatibouet, Gate.io chief marketing officer 

 

“SpaceX is going to put a literal Dogecoin on the literal moon.”

Elon Musk, Tesla CEO and “Technoking”

 

“Bitcoin currently in between 2013 and 2017 tracks.”

PlanB, stock-to-flow model creator

 

“Tether-Winky, Buy the Dipsey, Laa Laa, Poor.”

@CryptoCred

 

“I do think Bitcoin is on an inevitable path to having the same market cap and then a higher market cap as gold.”

Mike Novogratz, Galaxy Digital CEO

 

“We are working closely with teams across the firm to explore ways to offer thoughtful and appropriate access to the ecosystem for private wealth clients, and that is something we expect to offer in the near term.”

Mary Rich, Goldman Sachs head of digital assets

 

“This is the first time you can seamlessly use cryptocurrencies in the same way as a credit card or a debit card inside your PayPal wallet.”

Dan Schulman, PayPal CEO

 

“A part of the problem with Bitcoin is 90% of it is not done in the United States. 90% of it is done in countries that have dirty energy. So that’s the reason why it’s considered to be a dirty activity.”

Francis Suarez, Miami mayor

 

Prediction of the Week

One BTC will be worth a Lambo by 2022, and a Bugatti by 2023: Kraken CEO

After previously declaring that Bitcoin will be worth “infinity” in the future (Digests passim), Kraken CEO is making a triumphant return to Prediction of the Week.

Speaking to Bloomberg, Jesse Powell was keen to offer alternatives to measuring Bitcoin’s value in dollars — by comparing future price action to high-end sports cars… which can also have their value measured in dollars.

Powell said that one Bitcoin, which is currently worth a Tesla Model 3, could be worth one Lambo by the end of this year… and one Bugatti by 2023.

He added: “There could be 10 times as many U.S. dollars out there a year from now, so it’s really hard to measure Bitcoin against the dollar.”

 

FUD of the Week 

 

iPhone user blames Apple for $600,000 Bitcoin theft via fake app

A scam cryptocurrency app in Apple’s App Store has reportedly swindled 17.1 BTC from one unsuspecting user.

Phillipe Christodoulou had thought he had downloaded official Trezor software, given how it had many five-star reviews. Little did he know that the company doesn’t currently provide such an app.

After entering his seed phrase, Christodoulou says his funds were stolen. His crypto haul was worth $600,000 at the time, but now it’s worth $1 million.

The Washington Post reports that he has now filed a report with the FBI, but it seems the victim is reserving most of his anger for the tech giant: “They betrayed the trust that I had in them. Apple doesn’t deserve to get away with this.”

Trezor spokesperson Kristyna Mazankova told Cointelegraph that the firm has been fighting fraudulent apps for years — but claimed the wallet company “never gets any response from either Apple or Google.”

 

Oops! A 100% Bitcoin hodl outperformed CNBC’s 2017 altcoin basket by 170%

Ah, 2017. A crazy time that was slap bang in the middle of the ICO boom.

An investment portfolio that was championed by CNBC at the time has now resurfaced, which was made up of 30% Bitcoin and 70% altcoins.

Four years on, those who invested $10,000 at the time would now have about $52,300. Had they just bought and hodled Bitcoin, they would now have over $140,000.

StatsBTC, which crunched the numbers, noted: “The 30% #BTC allocation is responsible for 75% of the return.”

South Korean government makes $10.5-million profit from four-year-old Bitcoin crime haul

South Korean prosecutors have finally sold a Bitcoin haul they confiscated from a criminal in 2017, and it’s worth $10.5 million more than it was at the time of the arrest.

This is believed to be the first time that authorities in the country have sold confiscated Bitcoin — and at the time the crypto was seized, it was worth a paltry $238,000.

In late March, the South Korean government enacted widespread crypto-specific laws for the first time, putting more pressure on exchanges and virtual asset service providers to use real-name trading accounts and to report their activities to Korea’s Financial Intelligence Unit. 

 

Best Cointelegraph Features

 

A new era of content monetization? Blockchain tech can get you paid

Current content monetization systems are seen as broken, but some blockchain solutions claim to hold the key to solving their issues.

Making DeFi idiot-proof with Kava’s gamer CEO, Brian Kerr

Kerr says a major reason that decentralized finance has not yet hit the mainstream is that “93% of holders are never gonna touch their own keys.”

This is how to make — and lose — a fortune with NFTs

The rise of nonfungible tokens, or NFTs, has been nothing short of astounding this year. Google searches for “NFT” are up over 600% since mid-February.

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Here’s why April may be the best month yet for Bitcoin price

The U.S. dollar is starting to weaken once again as sellers are pushing the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) downward, which could strengthen the momentum of Bitcoin (BTC) in the near term.

Alternative assets like Bitcoin and gold are priced against the dollar. Hence, when the DXY starts to drop, it often causes BTC to rally against the dollar.

BTC/USD (orange) vs. DXY (green). Source: Tradingview

Dollar’s share of global reserves is dropping fast

According to Holger Zschaepitz, a market analyst at Welt, the U.S. dollar’s share of global reserves is rapidly declining as countries like Russia are pursuing a de-dollarization strategy and opting for gold.

When the pandemic was declared in the first quarter of 2020, the demand for the dollar increased as investors fled to cash because it is the global reserve currency.

However, due to various factors including the presidential election and the negative outlook on COVID throughout last year, the dollar struggled to outperform other currencies like the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc.

Zschaepitz said:

“OOPS! Dollar in decline. While Dollar’s share of global reserves initially increased at start of pandemic, it has since decreased & now stands at just 59%—1.5pp decline QoQ & lowest since 1995. Part of decline due to depreciation, but also due to active USD selling.”

If the decline of the U.S. dollar continues, there is a strong probability that Bitcoin will continue to rally in April.

Historically, April has been a strong month for Bitcoin throughout the past ten years, recording positive gains for five consecutive years since 2016.

Additionally, Danny Scott, the CEO of the Bitcoin exchange CoinCorner, said that the law of averages puts Bitcoin at $83,000 in April. He wrote:

“Law of averages gives #Bitcoin an $83,000 price target for April. Avg over 10 years in April +51%.”

Miners appear to be accumulating Bitcoin

Atop the favorable macro factors for Bitcoin, Lex Moskoviski, the CIO at Moskoviski Capital, pinpointed that miners recently began ramping up their BTC holdings.

On a single day, miners added 4,380 Bitcoin, which the quantitative trader and investor described as a growing trend. He said:

“Miners started really ramping up their positions. 4,494 #Bitcoin stacked today on aggregate. Another 4,380 #Bitcoin stacked by miners yesterday. Looks like a trend, indeed.”

BTC miner net position change. Source: Glassnode

When miners sell their holdings, Bitcoin typically sees a pullback as it can cause heavily leveraged orders in the futures market to see cascading liquidations. 

If miners are hoarding Bitcoin and stacking BTC with the expectations that the cryptocurrency will appreciate, it reduces the probability of a severe sell-off in the foreseeable future.

In the near term, whether Bitcoin remains above the $58,000 support area remains key. If it continues to consolidate above it, the chances of it seeing a strong breakout above the $60,000 resistance level greatly increases.


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Strategy Op-Ed: Why Hellmuth’s Limp Strategy is Bad for Poker

6 Questions for Wes Levitt of Theta Labs – Cointelegraph Magazine

We ask the buidlers in the blockchain and cryptocurrency sector for their thoughts on the industry… and we throw in a few random zingers to keep them on their toes!


 

This week, our 6 Questions go to Wes Levitt, head of strategy at Theta Labs.

At Theta Labs, Wes works on corporate strategy, marketing and press relations, and analytics. He has been a speaker on blockchain topics at conferences including the New York Media Festival, Blockchain Connect and NAB Streaming Summit, among others. Prior to joining Theta Labs, Wes spent eight years in investment roles at Mosser Capital, a real estate private equity firm; and Redwood Trust, a mortgage real estate investment trust focused on securitized debt. Wes is a CFA charterholder and holds a BS in economics from the University of Oregon and an MBA from the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley.

 


1 — If the world is getting a new currency, will it be led by central bank digital currencies, a permissionless blockchain like Bitcoin or a permissioned chain such as Diem?

If it’s only one, I would say CBDCs are more likely since governments are unlikely to give up the power of issuing their own currencies. But Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can exist alongside CBDCs and serve a different purpose. Even if Bitcoin never replaces the major fiat currencies (or their CBDC successors), it is hugely valuable by providing an alternative to them. The mere existence of Bitcoin, with its fixed supply and pseudonymous transactions, should force central banks to think twice about inflating their currency values away or forcing widespread surveillance on consumers.

It’s true that we aren’t seeing that yet with rampant money creation in the U.S. dollar, euro, Japanese yen, etc. in the past year — but that’s partly a function of Bitcoin and other crypto markets just being too small to be a workable alternative yet. But that’s changing quickly — you are seeing companies like MicroStrategy, Tesla and Meitu add Bitcoin to their corporate treasury, which becomes more and more feasible as Bitcoin’s market cap grows. Eventually, Bitcoin should grow large enough to be investable even at the scale of central banks, as an alternative or supplement to their gold holdings.
 

2 — Does it matter if we ever figure out who Satoshi really is, or was? Why, or why not?

I do think it matters, but that it’s best for Bitcoin if we never find out who Satoshi is/was. A real person will have a backstory, profession, country of origin, etc., which could only lead to division and bias in the crypto community. It’s better that Satoshi remain more of a legendary figure that people can interpret as they choose to. I think Satoshi himself realized this, and it’s why he chose to remain anonymous.

 

3 — What’s the silliest conspiracy theory out there… and which one makes you pause for a moment?

For silliest, I’ll go with a tie between QAnon and “Bill Gates putting tracking chips in the COVID vaccines.” Both are so stupid that they’ve become useful as a signaling device. If someone believes in one of those things, I can safely ignore anything else they say and save myself the time.

The one conspiracy theory I 100% believe is that David Stern regularly rigged the number-one pick in the NBA draft. Ewing to the Knicks in ’85, New Orleans getting Anthony Davis after Stern traded Chris Paul away, Lebron and Rose go to their hometown teams, the Cavs get three number-one picks in four years after Lebron leaves… way too many examples to have happened by accident!

 

4 — Other than the present day, in what time and in what country would you like to have lived?

I would have enjoyed mid-70s England, mostly for the music. You had the punk scene emerging with the Sex Pistols, The Clash, and The Damned, and many others. Iron Maiden and Motorhead are just getting started along with the whole NWOBHM [new wave of British heavy metal] scene. Plus, if you stick around until the late 70s/early 80s, you’ve got XTC and Depeche Mode and the Police just around the corner. One of the best five or so years in music you can find for a single country.

 

5 — Have you ever bought a nonfungible token? What was it? And if not, what do you think will be your first?

My first-ever NFT was purchased for just the price of some ETH for gas — I created it myself with Enjin back in 2018. This limited edition “Wes-branded” sword didn’t make it into any crypto games, sadly, but it was obviously a very cool concept, even if it was still a few years before the mainstream use of NFTs. The entertainment space is getting the most attention for NFTs right now, but the idea of taking legendary items with me between RPGs is still the use case that resonates with me the most. I’m not much of an art collector myself, but I could absolutely see myself ponying up for rare items that are interoperable between games — now, I can justify that this NFT purchase is an investment I could use across many different games in the future.

 

6 — What’s the unlikeliest-to-happen thing on your bucket list?

I’d like to live long enough to see humanity establish settlements on the Moon or Mars or other potentially habitable moons like Europa, and to travel there myself once that becomes feasible at a commercial level (i.e., without having to go through astronaut training just to go!) This still feels like too far away for my lifetime — we are 52 years post-Moon landing and barely any closer to permanent settlement. But the pace of technological discovery is always increasing, so I hold out hope that it will be in my plans for 2050 or so!

 

Stay positive, and keep building! Crypto goes through breakneck cycles of euphoria and despair — you have to take a step back and look at the big picture sometimes to keep your head on straight in this wild space.

 


 

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A Dream Come True for David “AtomBomb” Hendrix at Pearl River Poker Open

Bubble or a drop in the ocean? Putting Bitcoin’s $1 trillion milestone into perspective

On Feb. 19, Bitcoin’s (BTC) market capitalization surpassed $1 trillion for the first time. While this was an exciting moment for investors...